Recently, rumors of bankruptcy in some industries have continued. The photovoltaic industry bankruptcy drama that was staged last year has already made us feel the power of the economic cold. But then there may be more industries involved.
Industries that have emerged include the shipbuilding industry, the steel industry, the LED industry, the home market, the shipping industry, the trust industry, third-party wealth management, and PE. Companies in these industries should be careful: bankruptcy may not be far away. At the moment, the management has vigorously rectified the economy, slow growth, spurred withdrawal, money shortage, and bubble burst. These keywords have aggravated this process.
1. Samples of the shipbuilding enterprise Rongsheng Heavy Industry: the consequences of the bank’s lending are unimaginable
Last year, revenue fell by 50%, and the first quarter of this year was a loss of 49 million yuan. The global shipping industry's downturn has made cash flow and collections unsatisfactory.
Due to dissatisfaction with China Rongsheng Heavy Industry Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Fusheng Heavy Industryâ€), it was unable to pay wages in time. On July 1st and 2nd, some Rongsheng heavy labor dispatch personnel were enclosed in Rongsheng Heavy Industry Nantong Factory. At the door, I hope to get back the salary.
Since 2012, affected by the global shipping market downturn, the country's largest civil shipbuilding company is facing many challenges: cash flow shortage, bank loan tightening, shipowner's payment cycle prolonged and abandoned ship abandonment, delayed delivery The phenomenon has also occurred frequently. The rumors about its upcoming bankruptcy are even more constant.
According to the financial report, in 2012, Rongsheng Heavy Industry's revenue dropped by 50% year-on-year, with a revenue of only 7.96 billion yuan and a loss of 570 million yuan.
At the same time, although Rongsheng Heavy Industries delivered 21 ships last year, more than 15 in 2011, the company's cash and cash equivalents were only 2.14 billion yuan last year (2011: 6.26 billion yuan). That is to say, even if a ship is delivered, Rongsheng Heavy is not at a good time.
In fact, many problems of Rongsheng Heavy Industry are closely related to the recent sluggishness of the global shipping industry. Since June of last year, due to various factors, the shipbuilding market has changed, and some small boat factories have been in bankruptcy.
Insiders pointed out that the last straw of the shipbuilding enterprise represented by Rongsheng Heavy Industry will be a bank loan. It is reported that there are still more than 100 billion bank credit lines at Rongsheng Heavy Industry, but due to factors such as low return on investment and high risks, banks are reluctant to provide new loan support. In addition, the shipping market is in a downturn, and shipowners will pay down the down payment ratio. Compressed to 10% to 20%, Rongsheng Heavy Industry's capital chain is extremely tight.
"Banks are only likely to add icing on the cake, and it is unlikely that they will be able to send charcoal in the snow." Insiders pointed out that once the bank began to lend, the dominoes in the industry bankruptcy will fall.
2. Steel industry: Pingte Steel has already run
Pingxiang Pingte Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., with an annual production capacity of 800,000 tons of special steel, was once the key investment attraction project in Anyuan District, Pingxiang City. It is this small steel enterprise that was originally considered to be a good development. It has also fallen into the turmoil of the boss’s running.
The publicity department of Pingxiang City of Jiangxi Province announced on June 25 that the city's Pingte Steel Co., Ltd. stopped production on June 24 due to the capital chain break, and the wages of more than 200 employees were not settled. Subsequently, according to media disclosures, the company’s chairman, Dong Jianle and general manager Dong Jianwu, took the road of 200 million yuan, and the local government and public security organs have been involved in the investigation.
This news is both unexpected and seems to be a matter of course. In the context of the "money shortage", the steel industry in the industry's winter is undoubtedly worse, and small steel mills are likely to become the biggest victims.
Pinggang’s incident is not a case. At the end of May this year, many small steel mills in Tangshan area had not improved because of their operations. In addition, the environmental protection environmental assessment failed to pass, and they were forced to close the blast furnace, which led to business difficulties, financial rupture and eventual closure.
"In this environment, the road may no longer be just a trader. The bosses of small steel mills seem to be joining the team." Some insiders lamented.
Analyst Shen Yibing said, “Small steel mills are usually private enterprises. Because China does not have interest rate marketization, considering the risk factors, banks are more willing to lend money to lower-risk state-owned enterprises. Now, with the arrival of money shortage, small steel It is more difficult for companies to borrow money from banks."
Pressure from environmental protection has also become an important factor in fuel pressure on small steel mills. In the process of the collapse of small steel enterprises in Tangshan in May, the pressure on environmental protection for small steel enterprises was very obvious. It is understood that the Tangshan Municipal Government issued a notice at that time, decided to shut down the first batch of 199 seriously polluting enterprises and backward equipment. Originally, some small steel mills were not large in scale. The shutdown of the equipment almost prevented them from starting work normally, which led to serious difficulties in operation and affected the already weak capital chain.
3, LED industry: the collapse of the giant bankruptcy will intensify
In 2012, for the Chinese LED lighting industry, it is destined to be a crisis year. Under the guidance of macroeconomic policies, the LED industry in mainland China has developed rapidly, but subject to the influence of price, technology and products, the terminal market is in a weak state. Even so, many companies have switched to the LED industry or many large LED companies continue to expand their production capacity, causing greater squeeze on the market and overcapacity.
Following the collapse of the company in 2011, Xu Rui Optoelectronics Co., Ltd., which claims to be China's largest Sino-foreign joint venture LED chip project, announced that it has stopped production; the LED display company that claims to be “the top five companies in the industry for two consecutive years†and Shenzhen Vision Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. also came to the end. The boss is running. In less than a month, Ningbo Andy Optoelectronics also filed for bankruptcy. According to Andy Optoelectronics employees, the company owed 200 million yuan in March 2011, and changed the director in about three months. The electricity bill owed more than 100,000.
The layman looks at the excitement, and the insider looks at the doorway. The frequent closure of large LED companies proves that the LED industry crisis has exceeded the normal reshuffle of the industry. In the end, the LED fire, and let the LED industry itself get angry. LED products are energy-saving and environmentally friendly, but this is not the direct purpose and fundamental motivation for people to invest in the LED business. It is the last word to make money. The incentives for policy subsidies have led some LED companies to look forward to it. LED companies around the world are quickly launching, and then stranded. Or fallen.
"This year, the LED market will usher in a real outbreak," said Li Xuliang, chairman of Qinshang Optoelectronics. "In the past two years, the LED industry's 'main dish' has not yet, and companies are rushing to eat 'pre-dish', and no one can eat enough. 2013 The LED 'main dish' is on the table, but some companies will starve to death."
After experiencing investment heat, price cuts, and the tide of goods, the LED industry is entering the era of low profit. Among the thousands of LED companies, 90% of LED companies in 2012 are not very good. The LED industry naturally has a high degree of concentration. In 2013, the LED market will be truly stifled. Industry experts said that in the next two to three years, more than 60% of China's LED downstream plants will close down or undergo transformation. Under the huge investment in the past few years, the scale of the industry has begun to grow, and it has also brought overcapacity. LED companies are facing fierce competition for the survival of the fittest. Many people in the industry believe that the industry will face a cold wave in the short term, and it is inevitable to shuffle.
4, home stores: by the e-commerce, the cost of rising shocks to accept impulsive punishment
Formerly the largest Oriental Home Building Materials Supermarket Headquarters in China is applying for bankruptcy. Home Depot, the second largest building materials retailer in the US, has announced the closure of all its stores in China. B&Q in the UK has reduced the number of stores in China from 60 to 40 in peak hours. Left and right... The shop that has been “disappearing†and the large-scale stores that have closed down tell us that the domestic home building materials sector is suffering from a big impact.
Taking the Oriental Homeland as an example, in a forum where employees gathered in front of the Oriental Homeland, some employees also said that they are “accustomed to the money†and the arrears of suppliers’ money every year.
On the occasion of the arrival of the New Year in 2013, the Oriental Homeland was caught in the rumor of “crashingâ€. As the base camp of the Oriental Home, Beijing’s five stores were all closed. For a time, the consumers who asked for a refund, the suppliers who were in arrears, and the employees who were dismissed voiced a voice, and the rumors that the homeland was on the verge of collapse were intensifying.
Recently, the National Building Materials Home Furnishings Index (BHI) released by the China Building Materials Circulation Association confirmed the market's desertion in the past year. Statistics show that in December 2012, BHI continued its decline in November, and the major building materials and home furnishing markets have entered the winter of the market. In 2012, the annual sales of building materials and homes above designated size reached 1,246.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.46%.
Since 2012, the domestic property market turnover has been reduced due to strict regulation of housing prices, which has become an important factor leading to the decline of the household market prosperity index. In addition, the blind expansion of the investment entity led to an oversupply of stores and excessive idle shops, forcing them to recover costs by increasing store rents. As a result, problems such as a decline in the occupancy rate of the stores and difficulties in attracting investment have occurred, and eventually they have entered a vicious circle within the industry. Some dealers said that compared with three years ago, the rent of a store's decoration and shopping malls has been more than 50,000 yuan.
In addition, e-commerce is also considered to be a major factor in the diversion of home sales. According to the survey data of the China Electronic Commerce Research Center, the sales of household e-commerce in 2012 was 49 billion yuan, accounting for 4.5% of the total sales of e-commerce. Li Junming, president of the China Furniture Sellers Association, told the media recently that at least 40% of the retail sales in the industry will be completed online within five years.
5. Small and medium-sized real estate enterprises: squeezed bankruptcy
The "check out" incident of small and medium-sized housing enterprises is getting worse. In the “cold winter†period, the bankruptcy applications of housing enterprises in Shunde and Zhanjiang in Guangdong were made public. Since last year, Zhongheng Group has transferred 100% equity of Guangxi Real Estate, and Zhejiang Gangtai Holdings announced that its asset restructuring has shifted to mining. The analysis pointed out that the market share of real estate TOP10 enterprises and TOP20 enterprises increased again, and the industry concentration continued to increase.
The China Real Estate Association expects that at least 30% of mainland housing companies will be phased out in the next three years, and the total number of enterprises will be reduced from about 50,000 to 35,000. The land market of small and medium-sized housing enterprises is squeezed and the capital chain is unstable. Co-development, buying land in the second-hand market or acquiring equity, and taking the land, has become a "life-saving straw" for the stable development of housing enterprises.
Before the regulation and control entered the "cold winter", many small housing enterprises entered and exited, and various registration cancellations did not attract attention. Until April 9, 2012, the development of Hangzhou Jinxing Real Estate, which had a scale of over 100 million yuan, was blasted to the court for bankruptcy, and a thunderbolt shook the dominoes.
In 2012, CCB issued a credit adjustment document for the real estate industry issued by 38 branches nationwide in 2012, stipulating that “subsidiaries should not issue real estate development loans to small enterprisesâ€, and “development loans account for more than 15% of public loans. Branches of branches and cities where local governments are restricted to purchase shall strictly control the placement of new loans and reduce the concentration." This has made the situation of small and medium-sized housing enterprises worse.
"From the financial support field, small and medium-sized housing enterprises are basically the abandonment of the financial system under the pressure of Mingzhe or the superiors," said Xue Yuwen, a partner and real estate researcher.
Zhao Zhuowen, general manager of Guangzhou Tongchuang Excellence Real Estate Investment Consulting Co., Ltd. said that the consequences of the crisis of some companies have been planted two or three years ago. When the real estate market was hot around 2009, a large number of enterprises gathered in the real estate market, creating an “abnormal prosperity†in the real estate market. No matter what kind of industry the main business is, as long as you set up a real estate company, you can make money by buying blocks and building a house without selling it. For example, Hangzhou Jinxing Real Estate, which applied for bankruptcy, was engaged in the fragrance industry before, and only got involved in real estate in 2008.
6. Shipping industry: China's COSCO, a central enterprise, can not bankrupt other companies?
China Ocean Shipping "old captain" Wei Jiafu officially left China COSCO and left the A-share loss king to Ma Zehua.
Wei Jiafu is frequently referred to as "the head of the largest loss-listed central enterprises in the history of A-shares", and China's most important listed platform, China COSCO, is under the control of ST. At last year's shareholder meeting, Wei Jiafu accepted the hatred of many media with the hat of the "A-share loss king".
As a central enterprise, China COSCO can not go bankrupt because of government subsidies. But other companies in the shipping industry may not be so lucky.
"The current shipping industry is experiencing the Great Depression that has not happened in a hundred years. The Chinese shipping industry has experienced serious losses in the industry for two consecutive years. The shipping industry is facing the possibility of industry 'bankruptcy'." Member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and Chairman of the Board of Directors of Hebei Ocean Shipping Group Gao Yanming said that the revitalization of the shipping industry should be accelerated and the problem of excess capacity should be solved.
The shipping industry continued to be sluggish, and shipping companies were “stunnedâ€, especially in the dry bulk shipping market. At the time when the shipping industry was the most “landscapeâ€, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) once reached 11793 points; last year, the average BDI was 920 points, down 40.6% from the 2011 average of 1549 points; At the same time, fuel and related costs remain high. The losses in the shipping industry are still increasing.
According to Wind statistics, as of March 7, the 2012 results forecast issued by 13 A-share listed companies showed that five of them were facing losses, and three companies including Changhang Phoenix, Ningbo Shipping and Zhonghai Haisheng The loss was 1.39 billion yuan. China COSCO also issued a pre-loss announcement that after the huge loss of 10.4 billion yuan in 2011, there will still be a large loss in 2012, and the delisting risk warning will be issued.
Overcapacity is the root cause of the downturn in shipping. Gao Yanming said that due to the “bubble boom†in the shipping market in the past few years, the “new volume†of new shipbuilding has been brought about, and a large number of old ships have not withdrawn from the market in time, which has caused a surge in global capacity, exceeding the normal demand by about 30%. Capacity "catastrophic excess."
The way out for the shipping industry is to solve the problem of excess capacity. Otherwise, there may be a possibility of “bankruptcy†in the shipping industry.
7. Trust company: bad children will be disciplined sooner or later
In the case of Jilin Trust Fraud, the risk of repayment in the trust industry was once again put on the market. In the words of market participants, “the trust has developed through a few years of malformation, and it is time to start paying off debts.†Since this year, from “Qingdao Hyatt†to “Three Gorges†All-pass" to "Shusbel", even including the current event is not clear *ST Pearl River Trust financing exhibition was rejected, the trust industry risk has repeatedly exposed to the public eye.
The assets ranged from 360.6 billion yuan to 8.72 trillion yuan. The trust industry only took less than 6 years. At present, the scale of China's trust assets has surpassed that of the insurance industry, becoming the "second child" of the financial industry after the banking industry. But behind the trust's Great Leap Forward, it is the exposure of risk hazards and the hidden dangers of increased competition.
Flush iFinD data shows that from June 28 to December 31, a total of 1537 products will expire in the trust industry, of which 582 trust products were issued in 2011. Centralized redemption puts tremendous pressure on the trust industry, and does not rule out cases where trust redemption risks will occur.
In public opinion, trust companies have been used as typical examples of "Ponzi schemes."
Historically, trust companies have experienced a cleanup. During the Asian financial crisis, there were hundreds of trusts, and only more than 60 were left after the cleanup. Now, the risk of the trust industry has accumulated, and “the risk of bankruptcy is very highâ€. Economist Xie Guozhong said.
Especially in the context of liquidity tightening, a single trust that relies heavily on “shadow banking†will be greatly affected. Previously, Gao Shanwen (microblogging), chief economist of Essence Securities, believed that the central bank would not allow bank-type financial institutions to go bankrupt, but did not rule out trusts or securities companies. In the case of liquidity problems and deterioration of asset quality, capital emerged. Shortage and even liquidation risk.
It is reported that the "Financial Institutional Bankruptcy Regulations" has been solicited opinions within the CBRC department, and there is no timetable for when to come out. But there is no doubt that once the regulations are introduced, trust companies are likely to bear the brunt.
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