Cement industry dynamics: The average price of the national cement market continued to fall last week, down 0.5% from the previous month. Mainly reflected in Shanghai, Fujian and Zhejiang, the price of different regions was lowered by 10-30 yuan/ton; the price of clinker in Guangdong Pearl River Delta continued to drop sharply, with a range of 30 yuan/ton.
Cement industry judgment: In the second week of December, cement prices in East China and Guangdong continued to fall. After the rainy weather in November ended, demand in December remained weak. We expect that the “quantity†and “price†from the fundamentals of the industry before the Spring Festival are difficult to be obvious. Better; general construction of the eastern and central areas of the normal year will be rushed before the Spring Festival, the price may increase slightly by 20-30 yuan / ton from November to December. But this year we judged that the infrastructure projects approved in the previous period are still difficult to land during the year (maybe waiting until the second quarter of next year to contribute to cement demand), so even if the weather improves before the Spring Festival, it is difficult to see a large amount of demand; the maintenance price is still mainly based on shrinking supply, and 12 From the 15th of the month, Jiangsu, Jiangxi and other provinces will increase the intensity of stopping the kiln. If the kiln is effectively implemented, the price is expected to be maintained.
According to the more optimistic forecast next year, the current valuation of cement stocks is not low, but based on the optimistic expectation of infrastructure demand brought about by the next year to promote urbanization, cement demand may exceed expectations; therefore, from a strategic point of view, it is still better. Configuration choices. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region where Jidong Cement (000401, overweight) is located is currently at the bottom of profitability, and large-scale integration is expected. The increase in concentration will lead to improved performance; the eastern and central regions will have less capacity to increase next year. The performance is highly certain, and it can be focused on. Conch Cement (600585, Buy), Huaxin Cement (600801, Overweight) Glass Industry News: Last week, the domestic float glass original film market remained sluggish, and the market was mixed. The wind direction standard Shahe mainstream product 4-5mm slightly 1 yuan / heavy box fell, the southwest region that pulled up more in the previous period fell back 3-4 yuan / heavy box, the Huazhong Wuhan market slightly 1-2 yuan heavy box up. There was no ignition, cold repair or change production float production line last week.
Judging by the glass industry: Due to the weather, the demand in the northern market is shrinking. In the short term, demand is difficult to perform, and production capacity pressure is prominent: We have observed that the actual operating glass production capacity in the country has shown a slight net increase trend since May (accumulated growth of about 9) %), in the short term (the next 3 months) may put pressure on prices, there is still the possibility of further decline, we judge that from the end of the year to the first quarter of next year, under the pressure of price, there may be a new round of kiln shutdown. We believe that the glass industry has basically bottomed out, but it is still difficult to see the reversal trend in the short term. In the long run, based on the fact that the bottom of the flat glass industry has been established and it is expected to slowly pick up in the future, we suggest that investors on the left can pay attention to CSG A (000012, overweight).
Glass fiber industry judgment: The glass fiber industry is still in a low-lying economy, but the downward space is still small. We judge that the global fiber manufacturing industry is expected to recover slowly and prices will slowly pick up in the context of a moderate recovery in global manufacturing . We recommend that investors on the left can focus on the fiberglass industry stocks that are currently at the bottom of the profit. In addition, we are optimistic about the differentiated position in the fiberglass products under the differentiation strategy, and integrated at the bottom of the industry, ready to send Changhai shares (300,196, buy).
Individual stock recommendation: We are looking for investment opportunities in the well-developed fine-molecular industry, and continue to be optimistic about the structural changes in the industry and the transformation of its own profit model to bring high-growth waterproof materials industry leader Oriental Yuhong (002271, BUY) . Maintain optimistic about the differentiated strategy under the fiberglass products segment has a clear advantage, and integrated at the bottom of the industry, ready to send Changhai shares (300,196, buy).
Risk warning: lower-than-expected follow-up policies and a sharp rebound in coal prices.
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